Ecological Archives C006-057-A3
J. Ruffault and F. Mouillot. 2015. How a new fire-suppression policy can abruptly reshape the fire-weather relationship. Ecosphere 6:199. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/es15-00182.1
Appendix C. Performance of boosted regression trees (BRT) models in predicting fire occurrence probability.
Fig. C1. Performance of boosted regression trees (BRT) models predicting fire occurrence probability for different classes of final fire size and for two distinct periods: before (1973–1985) and after (1989–2006) the introduction of the new fire policy in 1987. Mean and standard deviation of an ensemble of 25 models are reported. AUC is the Area under the Receiving operator curve (ROC) curve. The commission error (false positives) is the percentage of fire events misclassified as absences, whereas the omission error is the percentage of non-fire events misclassified as presences (false negatives). The probability threshold is minimized according to the sum of these two values.