Ecological Archives A025-058-A2

Ecological Archives A025-058-A2

David N. Koons, Fernando Colchero, Kent Hersey, and Olivier Gimenez. 2015. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics. Ecological Applications 25:956–967. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-0932.1

Appendix B. Posterior Bayesian model weights for temperature and precipitation covariates.

Table B1. Posterior Bayesian model weights (w_j) for each of the j temperature covariates added to the Gompertz model with extractions, which were calculated by normalizing the posterior variable inclusion probabilities in tier 1 of the climate variable selection process. Three letter abbreviations are used to denote months, 'ann' refers to annual measures, a subscript denotes the time lag of the variable, and 'temp' denotes mean temperature.

j	w_j
febaprtemp₁	0.562
mayjultemp	0.145
anntemp₁	0.061
febaprtemp	0.046
anntemp	0.035
novjantemp₃	0.028
mayjultemp₁	0.022
anntemp₃	0.021
mayjultemp₃	0.017
augocttemp₁	0.011
augocttemp	0.011
febaprtemp₃	0.011
novjantemp₁	0.011
novjantemp	0.010
augocttemp₃	0.010

Table B2. Posterior Bayesian model weights (w_j) for each of the j precipitation covariates added to the Gompertz model with extractions, which were calculated by normalizing the posterior variable inclusion probabilities in tier 1 of the climate variable selection process. Three letter abbreviations are used to denote months, 'ann' refers to annual measures, a subscript denotes the time lag of the variable, and 'ppt' denotes total precipitation.

j	w_j	j	w_j	j	w_j
decppt₃	0.093	febppt	0.016	mayppt	0.014
junppt	0.066	mayppt₁	0.016	mayjulppt₁	0.014
junppt₃	0.043	aprppt₁	0.016	febaprppt₁	0.014
febppt₃	0.038	octppt	0.016	novjanppt₁	0.014
augppt₃	0.031	octppt₃	0.016	novppt₃	0.014
augoctppt₁	0.028	marppt	0.015	sepppt	0.014
febaprppt₃	0.026	novjanppt	0.015	marppt₁	0.013
octppt₁	0.024	febaprppt	0.015	febppt₁	0.013
mayjulppt	0.024	junppt₁	0.015	janppt	0.013
sepppt₁	0.023	aprppt	0.015	novppt₁	0.013
novppt	0.021	novjanppt₃	0.015	marppt₃	0.013
augoctppt₃	0.021	annppt	0.014	janppt₃	0.012
annppt₁	0.019	augppt₁	0.014	decppt	0.012
augoctppt	0.018	mayjulppt₃	0.014	janppt₁	0.012
aprppt₃	0.018	mayppt₃	0.014	julppt	0.012
julppt₃	0.017	annppt₃	0.014	decppt₁	0.012
augppt	0.017	sepppt₃	0.014	julppt₁	0.011

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