Ecological Archives A025-005-A2

Ecological Archives A025-005-A2

D. Stralberg, S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. Sólymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, X. Wang, S. G. Cumming, and S. J. Song. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications 25:52–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2289.1

Appendix B. Covariate correlations.

Table B1. Pearson correlation coefficients between climate, topographic, and land-use variables for (a) model-building data set, averaged across 11 bootstrap samples; (b) current period (1961–1990) within boreal and subarctic study area; (c) 2011–2040 within study area; (d) 2041–2070 within prediction area; (e) 2071–2100 within prediction area. See Appendix A Table A1 for climate variable definitions.

(a) model-building data set, averaged across 11 bootstrap samples

	CMI	CMIJJA	DD0	DD5	EMT	MSP	TD	CTI	WETLAND	AGRICULT	URBAN	WATER
CMI	1.000	0.664	-0.367	-0.036	0.489	0.721	-0.513	-0.180	-0.016	-0.168	0.009	0.061
CMIJJA	0.664	1.000	0.099	-0.294	-0.063	0.803	-0.041	-0.073	0.065	-0.216	-0.057	0.045
DD0	-0.367	0.099	1.000	-0.621	-0.876	-0.288	0.827	0.119	0.133	-0.191	-0.135	-0.015
DD5	-0.036	-0.294	-0.621	1.000	0.596	0.186	-0.150	0.175	-0.058	0.375	0.167	0.020
EMT	0.489	-0.063	-0.876	0.596	1.000	0.243	-0.771	-0.072	-0.056	0.159	0.173	0.086
MSP	0.721	0.803	-0.288	0.186	0.243	1.000	-0.177	-0.054	0.028	-0.063	-0.003	0.001
TD	-0.513	-0.041	0.827	-0.150	-0.771	-0.177	1.000	0.267	0.129	-0.028	-0.104	-0.017
CTI	-0.180	-0.073	0.119	0.175	-0.072	-0.054	0.267	1.000	0.128	0.125	0.020	0.059
WETLAND	-0.016	0.065	0.133	-0.058	-0.056	0.028	0.129	0.128	1.000	-0.129	0.007	0.026
AGRICULT	-0.168	-0.216	-0.191	0.375	0.159	-0.063	-0.028	0.125	-0.129	1.000	0.020	-0.122
URBAN	0.009	-0.057	-0.135	0.167	0.173	-0.003	-0.104	0.020	0.007	0.020	1.000	0.017
WATER	0.061	0.045	-0.015	0.020	0.086	0.001	-0.017	0.059	0.026	-0.122	0.017	1.000

(b) current period (1961–1990) within boreal and subarctic study area

	CMI	CMIJJA	DD0	DD5	EMT	MSP	TD	CTI	WETLAND	AGRICULT	URBAN	WATER
CMI	1.000	0.905	-0.344	-0.191	0.219	0.867	-0.581	-0.168	0.035	-0.127	-0.002	-0.076
CMIJJA	0.905	1.000	-0.213	-0.362	0.115	0.797	-0.587	-0.198	0.007	-0.123	-0.008	-0.087
DD0	-0.344	-0.213	1.000	-0.637	-0.492	-0.621	0.647	0.045	-0.158	-0.166	-0.019	0.067
DD5	-0.191	-0.362	-0.637	1.000	0.303	0.216	0.089	0.194	0.190	0.233	0.025	0.036
EMT	0.219	0.115	-0.492	0.303	1.000	0.269	-0.202	0.213	0.122	0.060	0.011	0.141
MSP	0.867	0.797	-0.621	0.216	0.269	1.000	-0.553	-0.131	0.092	0.008	0.005	-0.098
TD	-0.581	-0.587	0.647	0.089	-0.202	-0.553	1.000	0.283	0.015	-0.067	-0.011	0.157
CTI	-0.168	-0.198	0.045	0.194	0.213	-0.131	0.283	1.000	0.163	0.015	0.009	0.267
WETLAND	0.035	0.007	-0.158	0.190	0.122	0.092	0.015	0.163	1.000	-0.064	-0.002	-0.084
AGRICULT	-0.127	-0.123	-0.166	0.233	0.060	0.008	-0.067	0.015	-0.064	1.000	0.037	-0.055
URBAN	-0.002	-0.008	-0.019	0.025	0.011	0.005	-0.011	0.009	-0.002	0.037	1.000	-0.003
WATER	-0.076	-0.087	0.067	0.036	0.141	-0.098	0.157	0.267	-0.084	-0.055	-0.003	1.000

Fig. B1. Changes in mean Pearson correlation coefficients between climate, topographic, and land-use variables over time (solid lines) within the boreal and southern arctic study area, averaged over 19 GCMs for scenario A1. 1970 = current period (1961–1990); 2020 = 2011–2040; 2050 = 2041–2070; 2080 = 2071–2100. Compared with correlation coefficients within the model-building data set averaged across 11 bootstrap samples (dotted lines). See Appendix A Table A1 for climate variable definitions.

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