Ecological Archives E096-210-A1

Brian S. Cade. 2015. Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences. Ecology 96:23702382. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1639.1

Appendix A. Example publications with flawed use of model-averaged regression coefficients.

The following publications (not an exhaustive list) used model-averaged regression coefficients as estimates of partial effects in regression models with predictor variables that likely had multicollinearity: Diniz-Filho et al. (2008), Rittenhouse et al. (2009), Diamond et al. (2011), Hansen et al. (2011), Matthews et al. (2012), Martinson and Raupp (2013), Morehouse and Boyce (2013), and Fedy et al.(2014). The following publications used model-averaged regression coefficients in conjunction with the sums of AIC weights to determine relative importance of individual predictor variables: Balkcom (2010), Benson et al. (2010), Conner et al. (2010), Goldstein et al. (2010), Gregory et al. (2010), Price et al. (2010), Beever et al. (2013), Lohr et al. (2013), Börger and Nudds (2014), Dauwalter et al. (2014), Erb et al. (2014), and Manicom et al. (2014). The following publications used model-averaged regression coefficients and estimated predicted responses from them for models that were not linear in the predictor variables: Holloran et al. (2005), Buskirk (2005), Greaves et al. (2006), and Aldridge et al. (2011). This actually may have been done in more of these publications but could only be determined definitively for these four.

Literature Cited

Aldridge, C. L., S. E. Hanser, S. E. Nielsen, M. Leu, B. S. Cade, D. J. Saher, and S. T. Knick. 2011. Detectability adjusted count models of songbird abundance. Pp 141–220 in S. E. Hanser, M. Leu, S. T. Knick, and C. L. Aldridge (editors). Sagebrush ecosystem conservation and management: Ecoregional assessment tools and models for the Wyoming Basins. Allen Press, Lawrence, KS.

Balkcom, G. D. 2010. Demographic parameters of rural and urban adult resident Canada geese in Georgia. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:120–123.

Beever, E. A., S. Z. Dobrowski, J. Long, A. R. Mynsberge, and N. B. Piekielek. 2013. Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales. Ecology 94:1563–1571.

Benson, T. J., N. M. Anich, J. D. Brown, and J. C. Bednarz. 2010. Habitat and landscape effects on brood parasitism, nest survival, and fledgling production in Swainson’s warblers. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:81–93.

Börger, L. and T. D. Nudds. 2014. Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds. Ecological Applications 24:121–141.

Buskirk, J. V. 2005. Local and landscape influence on amphibian occurrence and abundance. Ecology 86:1936–1947.

Conner, L. M., J. C. Rutledge, and L. L. Smith. 2010. Effects of mesopredators on nest survival of shrub-nesting songbirds. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:73–80.

Dauwalter, D. C., S. J. Wenger, and P. Gardner. 2014. The role of complexity in habitat use and selection by stream fishes in a Snake River basin tributary. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 143:1177–1187.

Diamond, S. E., A. M. Frame, R. A. Martin, and L. B. Buckley. 2011. Species’ traits predict phonological responses to climate change in butterflies. Ecology 92:1005–1012.

Diniz-Filho, J. A. F., T. F. L. V. B. Rangel, and L. M. Bini. 2008. Model selection and information theory in geographical ecology. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17:479–488.

Erb, L. P., C. Ray, and R. Guralnick. 2014. Determinants of pika population density vs. occupancy in the Southern Rocky Mountains. Ecological Applications 24:429–435.

Fedy, B. C., K. E. Doherty, C. L. Aldridge, M. O’Donnell, J. L. Beck, B. Bedrosian, D. Gummer, M. J. Holloran, G. D. Johnson, N. W. Kaczor, C. P. Kirol, C. A. Mandich, D. Marshall, G. McKee, C. Olson, A. C. Pratt, C. C. Swanson, and B. L. Walker. 2014. Habitat prioritization across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas: An example using greater sage-grouse in Wyoming. Wildlife Monographs 190:1–39.

Goldstein, M. I., A. J. Poe, L. H. Suring, R. M. Nielson, and T. L. McDonald. 2010. Brown bear den habitat and winter recreation in south-central Alaska. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:35–42.

Greaves, R. K., R. A. Sanderson, and S. P. Rushton. 2006. Predicting species occurrence using information-theoretic approaches and significance testing: an example of dormouse distribution in Cumbria, UK. Biological Conservation 130:239–250.

Gregory, S. C., W. M. Vander Haegen, W. Y. Chang, and S. D. West. 2010. Nest site selection of western gray squirrels at their northern range terminus. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:18–25.

Hansen, C. P., J. J. Millspaugh, and M. A. Rumble. 2011. Occupancy modeling of ruffed grouse in the Black Hills National Forest. Journal of Wildlife Management 75:71–77.

Holloran, M. J., B. J. Heath, A. G. Lyon, S. J. Slater, J. L. Kuipers, and S. H. Anderson. 2010. Greater sage-grouse nesting habitat selection and success in Wyoming. Journal of Wildlife Management 69:638–649.

Lohr, K., E. Yensen, J. C. Munger, and S. J. Novak. 2013. Relationship between habitat characteristics and densities of southern Idaho ground squirrels. Journal of Wildlife Management 77:983–993.

Manicom, C., R. Alford, T. W. Schoener, and L. Schwarzkopf. 2014. Mechanisms causing variation in sexual size dimorphism in three sympatric, congeneric lizards. Ecology 95:1531–1544.

Martinson, H. M., and M. J. Raupp. 2013. A meta-analysis of the effects of urbanization on ground beetle communities. Ecosphere 4(5) Article 60.

Matthews, T. W., J. S. Taylor, and L. A. Powell. 2012. Ring-necked pheasant hens select managed conservation reserve program grasslands for nesting and brood-rearing. Journal of Wildlife Management 76:1653–1660.

Morehouse, A. T., and M. S. Boyce. 2013. Deviance from truth: telemetry location errors erode both precision and accuracy of habitat-selection models. Wildlife Society Bulletin 37:596–602.

Price, A. J., W. Estes-Zumpf, and J. Rachlow. 2010. Survival of juvenile pygmy rabbits. Journal of Wildlife Management 74:43–47.

Rittenhouse, T. A. G., R. D. Semlitsch, and F. R. Thompson III. 2009. Survival costs associated with wood frog breeding migrations: effects of timber harvest and drought. Ecology 90:1620–1630.


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