Appendix B. Past conceptual work related to ecological surprises.
Theory or Concept |
Key references |
Paradigms in science |
Kuhn 1962, Casti 1994, Egerton 1973, King 1995, Kates and Clark 1996, O’Hara 2005 |
Alternative stable states, and the effects of multiple perturbations in shifting states |
Scheffer et al. 1993, Paine et al. 1998, Scheffer et al. 2001, Hare and Mantua 2000, Beisner et al. 2003, Folke et al. 2004 |
The commonness of “rare” events, both due to abiotic and biotic causes |
Holling and Meffe1996, Young 1994, Turner et al. 2003 Weatherhead 1986 |
The role of indirect effects in species interactions: costs of fear, trait-mediated indirect effects, parasite effects on host behavior, etc. |
Nunn and Heymann. 2005, Berger et al. 2001, Luttbeg and Kerby 2005, Preisser et al. 2005 |
Importance of multiple resources and services for mutualistic interactions |
Schwartz and Hoeksema 1998, Hoeksema and Bruna 2000 |
Ecological Stochiometry: multiple, interacting limiting resources |
Huxel 1999, Sterner and Elser 2002, Moe et al. 2005 |
The complexity of interaction webs and types of interactions in real communities |
Polis and Strong 1996, Callaway and Pennings 2000 |
Adaptive management |
Holling 1978, 1996, Walters and Hilborn 1978, Bormann et al. 1994, Gunderson and Light 2006, Ravetz 1986, Christensen et al. 1996, Schneider 2001, Schneider et al. 1998 |
The Precautionary Principle |
Raffensperger and Tickner 1999, O’Riordan and Jordan 1995, Song et al. 2001, Sunstein 2005, Hammill and Stenson 2007, Punt and Donovan 2007 |
The Value of Long Term Monitoring |
Lovett et al. 2007, Billick and Price in press |
References on conceptual work related to ecological surprises:
Beisner, B. E., D. T. Haydon, and K. Cuddington. 2003. Alternative stable states in ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:376–382.
Berger, J., J. E Swenson, and I. L. Persson. 2001. Recolonizing carnivores and naive prey: Conservation lessons from Pleistocene extinctions. Science 291:1036–1039.
Billick, I., and M. Price. Editors. In press. The Ecology of Place. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Bormann, B. T., P. G. Cunningham, M. H. Brookes, V. W. Manning, and M. W. Collopy. 1994. Adaptive ecosystem management in the Pacific Northwest. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR 341. Portland Oregon: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, PNW Research Station. 22 pp.
Callaway, R. M., and S. C. Pennings. 2000. Facilitation may buffer competitive effects: indirect and diffuse interactions among salt marsh plants. The American Naturalist 156:416–424.
Casti, J. L. 1994. Complexification: explaining a paradoxical world through the science of surprise. Harper Collins, New York, New York, USA.
Christensen, N. L., A. M. Bartuska, J. H. Brown, S. Carpenter, C. D'Antonio, R. Francis, J. F. Franklin, J. A. MacMahon, R. F. Noss, D. J. Parsons, C. H. Peterson, M. G. Turner, and R. G. Woodmansee. 1996. The report of the Ecological Society of America committee on the scientific basis for ecosystem management. Ecological Applications 6:665–691.
Egerton, F. N. 1973. Changing concepts of the balance of nature. Quarterly Review of Biology 48:322–350.
Folke, C., S. Carpenter, B. Walker, M. Scheffer, T. Elmqvist, L. Gunderson, and C. S. Holling. 2004. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 35:557–581.
Gunderson, L., and S. S. Light. 2006. Adaptive management and adaptive governance in the Everglades ecosystem. Policy Sciences 39:323–334.
Hammill, M. O., and G. B. Stenson. 2007. Application of the precautionary approach and conservation reference points to management of Atlantic seals. Journal of Marine Science 64:702–706.
Hare, S. R., and N. J. Mantua. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47:103–145.
Hoeksema, J. D., and E. M. Bruna. 2000. Pursuing the big questions about interspecific mutualism: a review of theoretical approaches. Oecologia 125:321–330.
Holling, C. S. Editor. 1978. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. Wiley, London, UK.
Holling, C. S. 1996. Surprise for science, resilience for ecosystems, and incentives for people. Ecological Applications 6:733–735.
Holling C. S., and G. K. Meffe. 1996. Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management. Conservation Biology 10:328–337.
Huxel, G. R. 1999. On the influence of food quality in consumer-resource interactions. Ecology Letters 2:256–261.
Kates, R. W., and W. C. Clark 1996. Environmental surprise: Expecting the unexpected? Environment 38:28–34.
King, A. 1995. Avoiding ecological surprise: Lessons from long-standing communities. Academy of Management Review 20:961–985.
Kuhn, T. S. 1962. The structure of scientific revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Lovett, G. M., D. A. Burns, C. T. Driscoll, J. C. Jenkins, M. J. Mitchell, L. Rustad, J. B. Shanley, G. E. Likens, and R. Haeuber. 2007. Who needs environmental monitoring? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5:253 –260.
Luttbeg, B., and J. L. Kerby. 2005. Are scared prey as good as dead? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 20:416–418.
Moe, S. J., R. S. Stelzer, M. R. Forman, W. S. Harpole, T. Daufresne, and T. Yoshida. 2005. Recent advances in ecological stoichiometry: insights for population and community ecology. Oikos 109:29–39.
Nunn, C. L., and E. W. Heymann. 2005. Malaria infection and host behaviour: a comparative study of Neotropical primates. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology 59:30–37.
O'Hara, R. B. 2005. The anarchist's guide to ecological theory. Or, we don't need no stinkin' laws. Oikos 110:390–393.
O’Riordan, T., and A. Jordan. 1995. The Precautionary Principle, Science, Politics and Ethics. CSERGE Working Paper PA 95-02:1–26.
Paine, R. T., M. J. Tegner, and A. E. Johnson. 1998. Compounded perturbations yield ecological surprises. Ecosystems 1:535–545.
Polis, G. A., and D. R. Strong. 1996. Food web complexity and community dynamics. American Naturalist 147:813–846.
Preisser, E. L., D. I. Bolnick, and M. F. Benard. 2005. Scared to death? The effects of intimidation and consumption in predator-prey interactions. Ecology 86:501–509.
Punt, A. E., and G. P. Donovan. 2007. Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission. Journal of Marine Science 64:603–612.
Raffensberger, C., and J. Tickner. Editors. 1999. Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing the Precautionary Principle. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA.
Ravetz, J. R. 1986. Usable knowledge, usable ignorance: Incomplete science with policy implications. Pages 415-432 in W. C. Clark and R. E. Munn, editors. Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Cambridge University Press, New York, New York, USA.
Scheffer, M., S. Carpenter, J. A. Foley, C. Folkes, and B. Walker. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591–596.
Scheffer, M., S. H. Hosper, M.-L. Meijer, B. Moss, and E. Jeppesen. 1993. Alternative equilibria in shallow lakes. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:275–279.
Schneider, S. H. 2001. What is `dangerous' climate change? Nature 41:17–19.
Schneider, S. H., B. L. Turner, and G. H. Morehouse. 1998. Imaginable surprise in global change science. Journal of Risk Research 1:165–85.
Schwartz, M. W., and J. D. Hoeksema. 1998. Specialization and Resource Trade: Biological Markets as a Model of Mutualisms Ecology 79:1029–1038.
Song, S. J., and R. M. M'Gonigle. 2001. Science, Power, and System Dynamics: The Political Economy of Conservation Biology. Conservation Biology 15:980–989.
Sterner, R. W. and J. J. Elser. 2002. Ecological stoichiometry: the biology of elements from molecules to the biosphere. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
Sunstein, C. R. 2005. Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle. New York: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Turner, M. G., W. H. Romme, and D. B. Tinker. 2003. Surprises and lessons from the 1988 Yellowstone fires. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:351–358.
Walters, C. J., and R. Hilborn. 1978. Ecological optimization and adaptive management. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 9:157–188.
Weatherhead, P. J. 1986. How Unusual are Unusual Events? American Naturalist 128:150–154.
Young, T. P. 1994. Natural die-offs of large mammals: implications for conservation. Conservation Biology 8:410–418.