Appendix B. Details for quantifying changes in predation rates between years of extreme consumer densities based on the studies in Appendix A.
The process of extracting predation rates from visual inspection of the figures may introduce a small degree of error but should not be biased toward peak or crash years. A possible source of subjectivity may be introduced when classifying years of high and low primary prey density. This was usually of low concern given the magnitude of changes in abundance; however, prey densities in some studies were more continuously distributed through time. [This is not to say that prey did not pulse, but rather the amplitude of peaks and crashes may have varied from pulse to pulse. When plotted without respect to time, as some studies did, prey abundance may appear continuously distributed; e.g., Fig. 2]. When this occurred, we looked for natural breaks in the consumer densities or simply took the most extreme years. The following studies were used to assemble the data in Fig. 5. Their descriptions gives more specific information on how we categorized peak and crash years for the individual studies and other information relevant to determining differences in predation rates between years. The numbering of studies below follows their ranking from lowest to highest relative effect size in Fig 5B. For absolute effects (Fig 5A), we used only those studies reporting data as percentages. This resulted in omitting: Hogstad (1995), O’Donnell and Phillipson (1996), and Gauthier et al. (2004).
1. McShea (2000) – Data from Fig. 4 comparing artificial nest predation from high rodent years (1995, 1997) and low rodent year (1993; no artificial nest experiment was ruin in 1998). Note: rodent data were not given so I used preceding autumns with high or low acorn abundance based on repeatability of masting or failure, respectively, among sites (see Table 3).
2. O’Donnell and Phillipson (1996) – Data from Table 2 comparing mohua productivity during rodent peak (1990/1991) and the following rodent crash year (1991/1992).
3. Schmidt (2006 and unpublished data) – low rodent (2000, 2005) and high rodent (1999, 2004). Percentage nest predation based on the nest daily mortality rate and a 24-day nest cycle.
4–6. Jędrzejewska and Jędrzejewski (1998) – Data from table 5.18 comparing outbreak rodent years to crash rodent years for Wren, Collared Flycatcher, and wood warbler, respectively.
7. Wilson and Bromley (2001) – Data from Fig. 1 comparing peak lemming years (1990, 1993, 1996) and low lemming years (1991, 1994, 1997) for White-fronted Goose.
8. Ackerman (2002) – Data from Table 2 comparing nest success (all ducks) between high California vole year (1999) and low California vole year (1998). California vole was used rather than all rodents given the demonstrated relationship between vole abundance and nest success.
9. Widen et al. 1987 – Data from Fig. 1 comparing peak vole years (1977, 1980) and low vole years (1979, 1981).
10. Saniga (2002) – Data from Table 1. I compared 1996 (rodent peak) to 1995 and 1997 (authors indicated these were two years of lowest rodent abundance). To prevent pseudoreplication I did not use data on percentage of hens with chicks (Tables 2–5).
11. Pehrsson (1986) – Data from Table 3 comparing high rodent years (1970, 1974) to low rodent years (1971, 1972, 1973).
12. Wegge and Storaas (1990) – Data from Table 1. I pooled Capercaillie and Black Grouse nest success comparing peak years (1980 and 1984) to all others for lack of obvious years with moderate rodent abundance.
13. Wilson and Bromley (2001) – Data from Fig. 1 comparing peak lemming years (1990, 1993, 1996) and low lemming years (1991, 1994, 1997) for Canada Goose.
14. Lindstrom et al. (1987) – Experimental study with data straight from the text.
15. Custer and Pitelka (1977) – Data from Table 3 comparing year of high lemming abundance (1971) to year of low lemming abundance (1969).
16. Gauthier et al. (2004; also see Betty et al. 2001, 2002) – Authors recommend examining the total response of predator (Fig. 7, eggs depredated per 50 ha). I compared peak lemming (1999, 2002) and low lemming years (1996, 2000). Nest success data (Fig. 6), which includes additional years, also strongly supports the pattern.
17. Šálek et al. (2004) – Data is straight from the text.
18. Dunn (1977) – Data from Fig. 3 comparing the three lowest rodent yeas (<50 per 4 acres) to 4 highest rodent years (>130 per 4 acres). There is otherwise not an obvious break in the distribution of rodent abundance over time, except 1963 (~230 rodents/4 acres).
19. Haselmayer and Jamieson (2001) – Data from Fig.1. Following the authors, I eliminated 1991 and pooled years 1992–1994 (no rabbit control measures) to compare to 1998 (rabbit control) examining predation events (i.e., not desertions) only.
20. Brook et al. – Data from Fig. 3 comparing Lesser Scaup productivity between years with high (>0.15/trap night) and low (<0.02/trap night) rodent abundance.
21. Hogstad (1995) – Data from Fig. 4 averaging fledglings per nests for the four peak rodent years (1981, 1985, 1989, and 1993) and 4 crash years (1982, 1986, 1990, and 1994); also see Fig. 1 for rodent index.
22. Angelstam et al. (1984) – Data from Fig. 4 is difficult for quantifying predation rates because of differences in the relative timing of vole trapping and nest predation and because vole numbers may have changed dramatically between consecutive trapping periods. Therefore, I used the figures of 63% (high vole) and 20% (low vole) given in the text.
23. Jędrzejewska and Jędrzejewski (1998) – Data from Table 5.18 comparing outbreak rodent years to crash rodent years for the White-backed Woodpecker.
24. Byers (1974) – Data from Table 2 comparing 1972 (highest rodent year) to 1971 (lowest rodent year).
25. Hogstad (2000) – Data from Fig. 3 comparing nest predation between high (author’s score of 3) and low (score of 0) rodent years.
26. Ebbinge and Spaans – Data from Table 1 using mainland data only. I pooled peak lemming years (1991 and 1994) and low lemmings years (1990 and 1993) for comparison given small sample sizes in each year.
27. Orell (1988) – Data from Fig. 7 comparing years with the two highest rodent densities to years with two lowest rodent densities.
28. Underhill et al. (1993) – Data from text comparing 1991 (lemming peak year) to 1992 (declining lemming year).
29. Järvinen (1985) – Data from Fig. 1 comparing two peak (>20 per 100 trap nights) rodent years (using mid-June trapping dates: 1974, 1982) and five low (<2 per 100 trap nights) rodent years.
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