Ecological Archives E089-006-A2

Giacomo Tavecchia, Eduardo Minguez, Ana de León, Maite Louzao, and Daniel Oro. 2008. Living close, doing differently: small-scale asynchrony in demography of two species of seabirds. Ecology 89:77–85.

Appendix B. Modeling survival and encounter probability.

Modeling adult survival of newly-marked ( ; in colony Ap and Bs only), already-marked birds () and encounter probability (p). AICc = difference in AIC relative to the best model, DEV= Model deviance, np = number of estimable parameter in the model. Selected models are shown in bold. Model notation: t = time, c = colony, · = interaction, T = linear trend, - = constant.

Model

p

DEV

np

AICc

European Storm Petrel

        

1

t

t+c+t.c

m+t+c+t.m+c.m+t.c+m.t.c

1223.73

51

28.48

2

t

t+c+t.c

m1+t+c+t.m1+c.m1+t.c

1228.78

46

22.83

3

t

t+c+t.c

m2+t+c+t.m2+c.m2+t.c

1267.57

46

61.62

4

t

t+c+t.c

m1+c

1257.88

27

11.94

5

t

t+c+t.c

m1+t1+c

1243.66

34

12.32

6

t

t+c+t.c

m1+c+t1+T2

1238.32

35

9.09

7

t

c

m1+c

1281.08

13

6.34

8

t

-

m1+c+T2

1278.28

13

3.54

9

t

t+c+t.c

m1+c+T2

1252.54

28

8.69

10

-

t+c+t.c

m1+c

1286.96

19

24.5

11

-

t+c+t.c

m1+c+T2

1269.07

20

8.67

12

-

c

m1+c+T2

1300.37

6

11.46

13

-

t+c

m1+c+T2

1276.34

14

3.65

14

t

t1+c+t.c1

m1+c

1269.37

21

11.02

15

t

t2+c+t.c2

m1+c

1269.59

19

7.13

16

t3

t3+c+t.c3

m1+c

1270.39

20

9.99

17

t

c

m1+c+T2

1272.69

14

0

18

t

c

m1+t1+c+T2

1256.79

22

0.50
             

Balearic Shearwater

        

19

t

t+c+t.c

t+c+t.c

321.11

32

12.106

20

t

t+c+t.c

t+c

330.72

25

9.014

21

t

t+c+t.c

T

348.99

24

25.188

22

t

t+c+t.c

t1 +c+t1.c

323.10

27

5.608

23

t

t+c+t.c

c

41.31

19

41.305

24

-

t +c+t.c

t1 +c+t1.c

352.04

21

21.958

25

-

t+c

t1+c+t1.c

365.03

16

24.565

26

-

c

t1+c+t1.c

368.99

10

16.195

27

t

t+c

t1+c+t1.c

325.90

23

0

28

t

t3+c

t1+c+t1.c

355.57

17

17.17

29

.

t +c+t.c

t1 +c+t1.c

335.65

21

5.562

30

t

c

t1 +c+t1.c

347.25

17

8.846

31

.

c

t1 +c+t1.c

361.43

11

10.685

1 In colony A only.

2 In colony B only.

3 Parallel regression between and . In colonies A for petrel and in B for shearwaters.

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