Appendix B. Estimates of survival probabilities with SURGE.
The estimated survival probabilities for each 3-d time period (time period one starts on 15 January) estimated using the program SURGE. The recapture survival estimates are from a model with variable recapture and survival (Model A), so the final survival parameter is not estimable.
Time period
Survival probability
SE
1
1
0
2
1
0
3
1
0
4
1
0
5
1
0
6
0.5197
0.7612
7
1
0
8
1
0
9
0.9316
0.7620
10
0.7623
0.3504
11
0.8191
0.6051
12
0.9281
0.8590
13
0.952
0.1315
14
0.9454
0.1967
15
1
0
16
0.5324
0.1900
17
1
0
18
1
0
19
0.7256
0.2734
20