Kevin E. See and Elizabeth E. Holmes. 2015. Reducing bias and improving precision in species extinction forecasts. Ecological Applications 25:11571165. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-2003.1


Supplement

R code for simulation implementation and parameter estimation.
Ecological Archives A025-069-S1.

Copyright


Authors
File list (downloads)
Description


Author(s)

Kevin E. See
Quantitative Consultants, Inc.
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
2725 Montlake Boulevard East
Seattle, WA 98112
Email: Kevin@qcinc.org

Elizabeth E. Holmes
Conservation Biology
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
National Marine Fisheries Service
NOAA
2725 Montlake Boulevard East
Seattle, WA 98112


File list

EstimationComparison.R (MD5: 5055e25ebc61fe8dbf012b48198eadda)

Simulations.R (MD5: 56eef6b34cb59a85d5072b0b20e645ec)

CreateFigures.R (MD5: 2c19a14d1ac5887ba544c2937d8639ca)

Description

EstimationComparison.R - This code was used to simulate time-series of length 30 time-step and either 1, 2, or 3 replicated observations at each time-step. Parameters were then estimated using three different methodologies: restricted maximum likelihood (REML) based on first differences, REML based on second differences and maximum likelihood using the Kalman filter, as implemented in the MARSS R package.

Simulations.R - This code was used to simulate time-series of varying length, with varying numbers of replicated observations, under two different rates of decline and several different process and non-process error variances. Estimates of trend, process and non-process error variances were then made with the MARSS R package.

CreateFigures.R - This code was used to create the figures that appear in the manuscript and appendices.