Ecological Archives A025-058-A2

David N. Koons, Fernando Colchero, Kent Hersey, and Olivier Gimenez. 2015. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics. Ecological Applications 25:956967. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-0932.1

Appendix B. Posterior Bayesian model weights for temperature and precipitation covariates.

Table B1. Posterior Bayesian model weights (wj) for each of the j temperature covariates added to the Gompertz model with extractions, which were calculated by normalizing the posterior variable inclusion probabilities in tier 1 of the climate variable selection process. Three letter abbreviations are used to denote months, 'ann' refers to annual measures, a subscript denotes the time lag of the variable, and 'temp' denotes mean temperature.

j

wj

febaprtemp1

0.562

mayjultemp

0.145

anntemp1

0.061

febaprtemp

0.046

anntemp

0.035

novjantemp3

0.028

mayjultemp1

0.022

anntemp3

0.021

mayjultemp3

0.017

augocttemp1

0.011

augocttemp

0.011

febaprtemp3

0.011

novjantemp1

0.011

novjantemp

0.010

augocttemp3

0.010

 

Table B2. Posterior Bayesian model weights (wj) for each of the j precipitation covariates added to the Gompertz model with extractions, which were calculated by normalizing the posterior variable inclusion probabilities in tier 1 of the climate variable selection process. Three letter abbreviations are used to denote months, 'ann' refers to annual measures, a subscript denotes the time lag of the variable, and 'ppt' denotes total precipitation.

j

wj

j

wj

j

wj

decppt3

0.093

febppt

0.016

mayppt

0.014

junppt

0.066

mayppt1

0.016

mayjulppt1

0.014

junppt3

0.043

aprppt1

0.016

febaprppt1

0.014

febppt3

0.038

octppt

0.016

novjanppt1

0.014

augppt3

0.031

octppt3

0.016

novppt3

0.014

augoctppt1

0.028

marppt

0.015

sepppt

0.014

febaprppt3

0.026

novjanppt

0.015

marppt1

0.013

octppt1

0.024

febaprppt

0.015

febppt1

0.013

mayjulppt

0.024

junppt1

0.015

janppt

0.013

sepppt1

0.023

aprppt

0.015

novppt1

0.013

novppt

0.021

novjanppt3

0.015

marppt3

0.013

augoctppt3

0.021

annppt

0.014

janppt3

0.012

annppt1

0.019

augppt1

0.014

decppt

0.012

augoctppt

0.018

mayjulppt3

0.014

janppt1

0.012

aprppt3

0.018

mayppt3

0.014

julppt

0.012

julppt3

0.017

annppt3

0.014

decppt1

0.012

augppt

0.017

sepppt3

0.014

julppt1

0.011


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