Ecological Archives A020-010-A5

Ricardo M. Holdo, Kathleen A. Galvin, Eli Knapp, Stephen Polasky, Ray Hilborn, and Robert D. Holt. 2010. Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system. Ecological Applications 20:381–397.

Appendix E. Error bounds for response variables.

TABLE E1. Mean values and 95% percentiles (in parentheses) based on the last 25 years of 100 100-year runs for the response variables shown in Fig. 4 of the main text (total wildebeest, human, and livestock populations, wildebeest offtake, proportion burned, and tree density) as a function of rainfall and antipoaching.

Antipoaching

Rainfall

Wildebeest
(106)

Humans
(106)

Livestock
(105 TLUs)

Wildebeest
offtake (104)

Proportion
burned

Tree density
(ha-1)

Strong

Mean

1.12 (0.75–1.51)

2.50 (1.82–3.20)

4.38 (1.43–7.22)

4.52 (1.53–9.09)

0.31 (0.09–0.50)

390 (330–450)

Strong

Dry

0.92 (0.63–1.27)

2.14 (1.55–2.76)

4.32 (1.21–7.50)

3.33 (0.98–6.66)

0.31 (0.11–0.50)

390 (350–440)

Strong

Wet

1.35 (0.99–1.71)

3.17 (2.69–3.71)

3.96 (1.98–6.01)

6.29 (2.72–11.69)

0.29 (0.12–0.46)

450 (400–500)

Weak

Mean

0.90 (0.57–1.26)

2.44 (1.77–3.10)

4.28 (1.32–7.08)

5.95 (1.73–12.63)

0.40 (0.13–0.58)

320 (270–370)

Weak

Dry

0.77 (0.53–1.04)

2.17 (1.60–2.81)

4.17 (1.24–7.31)

4.59 (1.33–9.53)

0.38 (0.16–0.57)

320 (280–360)

Weak

Wet

1.06 (0.74–1.40)

3.15 (2.64–3.67)

3.91 (2.03–5.93)

8.52 (3.36–16.45)

0.40 (0.17–0.57)

340 (290–390)


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