Ecological Archives A018-040-A6

Arnaud Ghilain and Marc Bélisle. 2008. Breeding success of Tree Swallows along a gradient of agricultural intensification. Ecological Applications 18:1140–1154.

Appendix F. ΔmAICc of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006, when only considering nests where >1 egg hatched (vs. hatching probability) or >1 nestling fledged (vs. number of fledglings and fledging probability).

TABLE F1. ΔmAICc of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006, when only considering nests where >1 egg hatched (vs. hatching probability) or >1 nestling fledged (vs. number of fledglings and fledging probability). Models are linear mixed models with farm ID as random effect. See Table 1 for variable definition and justification.

 

Scale (km)

Brood or Clutch

Intensive Culture

Extensive Culture

Weather

Weather + Intensive

Weather + Extensive

Brood or Clutch + Weather

Brood or Clutch + Intensive

Brood or Clutch + Extensive

                     

Hatching probability

1

14.98

9.91

3.55

12.80

9.63

2.63

14.48

11.93

5.57

 

2

14.98

10.17

11.04

12.80

9.76

9.70

14.48

12.20

12.99

 

3

14.98

9.86

14.05

12.80

9.58

13.04

14.48

11.89

15.94

 

4

14.98

10.77

12.12

12.80

10.53

11.37

14.48

12.8

14.10

 

5

14.98

11.35

14.25

12.80

11.11

13.68

14.48

13.38

16.21

 

10

14.98

11.35

14.73

12.80

10.93

13.85

14.48

13.37

16.67

 

20

14.98

7.40

1.98

12.80

6.27

0.00

14.48

9.41

3.98

                     

Number of fledglings

1

8.19

4.34

10.22

11.06

12.19

6.72

-

-

-

 

2

8.19

0.51

7.87

11.06

9.14

2.16

-

-

-

 

3

8.19

2.87

3.46

11.06

4.65

4.53

-

-

-

 

4

8.19

3.75

0.00

11.06

1.64

5.59

-

-

-

 

5

8.19

3.96

1.25

11.06

3.14

5.97

-

-

-

 

10

8.19

2.56

8.88

11.06

10.21

4.57

-

-

-

 

20

24.26

45.51

56.83

38.02

68.73

57.37

-

-

-

                     

Fledging probability

1

1.13

20.22

25.32

20.64

24.09

29.28

5.09

3.03

9.37

(Likelihood that a

2

1.13

18.63

22.62

20.64

22.58

26.65

5.09

0.58

5.48

hatchling fledged)

3

1.13

21.19

21.05

20.64

25.14

25.04

5.09

3.52

2.98

 

4

1.13

21.93

18.94

20.64

25.91

22.92

5.09

4.53

0.00

 

5

1.13

22.41

18.52

20.64

26.41

22.48

5.09

5.17

0.09

 

10

1.13

23.23

24.19

20.64

27.16

28.19

5.09

5.68

6.71

 

20

1.13

23.03

25.95

20.64

26.99

29.95

5.09

5.12

7.14

Notes: mAICc weights depict the relative strength of each model for a given spatial scale (i.e., radius).

List of models and their variables:

Hatching probability (n = 715):

Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Clutch + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Number of fledglings (n = 597):

Brood = year + clutch initiation date

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Fledging probability (n = 597):

Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Brood + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle


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