Appendix E. Akaike weights of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006, when only considering nests where >1 egg hatched (vs. hatching probability) or >1 nestling fledged (vs. number of fledglings and fledging probability).
TABLE E1. Akaike weights of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006, when only considering nests where >1 egg hatched (vs. hatching probability) or >1 nestling fledged (vs. number of fledglings and fledging probability). Models are linear mixed models with farm ID as random effect. See Table 1 for variable definition and justification.
Scale (km) |
Brood or Clutch |
Intensive Culture |
Extensive Culture |
Weather |
Weather + Intensive |
Weather + Extensive |
Brood or Clutch + Weather |
Brood or Clutch + Intensive |
Brood or Clutch + Extensive |
|
Hatching probability |
1 |
0.001 |
0.014 |
0.325 |
0.003 |
0.016 |
0.516 |
0.001 |
0.005 |
0.119 |
2 |
0.017 |
0.192 |
0.124 |
0.052 |
0.235 |
0.242 |
0.022 |
0.070 |
0.047 |
|
3 |
0.023 |
0.302 |
0.039 |
0.070 |
0.349 |
0.062 |
0.030 |
0.110 |
0.014 |
|
4 |
0.027 |
0.218 |
0.112 |
0.079 |
0.247 |
0.162 |
0.034 |
0.079 |
0.041 |
|
5 |
0.041 |
0.251 |
0.059 |
0.122 |
0.283 |
0.078 |
0.053 |
0.091 |
0.022 |
|
10 |
0.041 |
0.251 |
0.046 |
0.121 |
0.309 |
0.072 |
0.052 |
0.091 |
0.018 |
|
20 |
0.000 |
0.016 |
0.234 |
0.001 |
0.027 |
0.629 |
0.000 |
0.006 |
0.086 |
|
Number of fledglings |
1 |
0.099 |
0.626 |
0.032 |
0.024 |
0.205 |
0.014 |
- |
- |
- |
2 |
0.018 |
0.146 |
0.561 |
0.004 |
0.053 |
0.218 |
- |
- |
- |
|
3 |
0.029 |
0.384 |
0.274 |
0.007 |
0.162 |
0.144 |
- |
- |
- |
|
4 |
0.010 |
0.093 |
0.596 |
0.002 |
0.037 |
0.262 |
- |
- |
- |
|
5 |
0.018 |
0.146 |
0.561 |
0.004 |
0.053 |
0.218 |
- |
- |
- |
|
10 |
0.040 |
0.665 |
0.028 |
0.010 |
0.243 |
0.014 |
- |
- |
- |
|
20 |
0.001 |
0.053 |
0.569 |
0.000 |
0.032 |
0.344 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Fledging probability |
1 |
0.649 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.007 |
0.000 |
0.089 |
0.251 |
0.011 |
(Likelihood that a |
2 |
0.389 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.054 |
0.513 |
0.044 |
hatchling fledged) |
3 |
0.544 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.075 |
0.165 |
0.216 |
4 |
0.325 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.003 |
0.059 |
0.571 |
|
5 |
0.338 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.047 |
0.045 |
0.570 |
|
10 |
0.768 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.106 |
0.079 |
0.047 |
|
20 |
0.755 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.104 |
0.103 |
0.037 |
Notes: mAICc weights depict the relative strength of each model for a given spatial scale (i.e., radius).
List of models and their variables:
Hatching probability (n = 715):
Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid
Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations
Clutch + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + temperature + precipitations
Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Intensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Extensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Number of fledglings (n = 597):
Brood = year + clutch initiation date
Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations
Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Fledging probability (n = 597):
Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born
Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations
Brood + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + temperature + precipitations
Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Intensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks
Extensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle
Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle