Ecological Archives A018-040-A4

Arnaud Ghilain and Marc Bélisle. 2008. Breeding success of Tree Swallows along a gradient of agricultural intensification. Ecological Applications 18:1140–1154.

Appendix D. ΔmAICc of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006.

TABLE D1. ΔmAICc of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006. Models are linear mixed models with farm ID as random effect. See Table 1 for variable definition and justification.

 

Scale (km)

Brood or Clutch

Intensive Culture

Extensive Culture

Weather

Weather + Intensive

Weather + Extensive

Brood or Clutch + Weather

Brood or Clutch + Intensive

Brood or Clutch + Extensive

                     

Clutch size

1

10.17

2.02

16.70

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

2

10.17

3.03

17.14

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

3

10.17

3.96

13.89

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

4

10.17

1.16

10.68

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

5

10.17

1.64

11.95

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

10

10.17

2.83

11.66

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

20

10.17

0.00

2.13

-

-

-

-

-

-

                     

Hatching probability

1

3.11

99.51

107.15

110.88

99.96

108.20

5.79

0.00

2.20

 

2

3.11

104.85

112.99

110.88

105.48

114.05

5.79

4.74

6.45

 

3

3.11

107.16

113.58

110.88

107.81

114.65

5.79

5.86

6.27

 

4

3.11

107.40

112.32

110.88

107.96

113.37

5.79

6.70

4.91

 

5

3.11

107.73

112.16

110.88

108.36

113.32

5.79

6.85

4.34

 

10

3.11

107.56

112.83

110.88

108.32

113.79

5.79

6.58

6.40

 

20

3.11

104.25

106.50

110.88

105.15

107.70

5.79

4.51

7.66

                     

Number of fledglings

1

14.75

15.77

10.07

18.26

19.08

13.15

-

-

-

 

2

14.75

11.11

7.59

18.26

14.19

10.59

-

-

-

 

3

14.75

12.14

3.98

18.26

15.24

7.10

-

-

-

 

4

14.75

13.03

0.00

18.26

16.10

3.27

-

-

-

 

5

14.75

13.55

2.27

18.26

16.67

5.67

-

-

-

 

10

14.75

13.14

12.30

18.26

16.29

15.29

-

-

-

 

20

14.75

10.99

6.03

18.26

13.89

8.76

-

-

-

                     

Fledging probability

1

7.22

11.70

11.70

9.34

15.30

12.06

10.74

13.29

9.84

(Likelihood that a

2

7.22

9.66

9.66

9.34

13.38

8.58

10.74

11.40

6.37

hatchling fledged)

3

7.22

10.17

10.17

9.34

13.95

6.81

10.74

11.89

4.67

 

4

7.22

10.15

0.00

9.34

13.93

3.93

10.74

11.81

1.89

 

5

7.22

11.10

1.69

9.34

14.88

5.61

10.74

12.76

3.53

 

10

7.22

12.15

12.15

9.34

15.88

13.09

10.74

13.84

10.86

 

20

7.22

11.04

11.04

9.34

14.85

14.19

10.74

12.79

12.22

Notes: mAICc weights depict the relative strength of each model for a given spatial scale (i.e., radius).

List of models and their variables:

Clutch size (n = 912):

Clutch = year + clutch initiation date

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Hatching probability (n = 912):

Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Clutch + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Number of fledglings (n = 715):

Brood = year + clutch initiation date

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Fledging probability (n = 715):

Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Brood + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

[Back to A018-040]