Ecological Archives A018-040-A3

Arnaud Ghilain and Marc Bélisle. 2008. Breeding success of Tree Swallows along a gradient of agricultural intensification. Ecological Applications 18:1140–1154.

Appendix C. Akaike weights of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 2004–2006.

TABLE C1. Akaike weights of the models explaining breeding success by Tree Swallows at seven spatial scales along a gradient of agricultural intensification in southern Québec, 20042006. Models are linear mixed models with farm ID as random effect. See Table 1 for variable definition and justification.

 

Scale (km)

Brood or Clutch

Intensive Culture

Extensive Culture

Weather

Weather + Intensive

Weather + Extensive

Brood or Clutch + Weather

Brood or Clutch + Intensive

Brood or Clutch + Extensive

                     

Clutch size

1

0.017

0.983

0.001

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

2

0.027

0.972

0.001

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

3

0.043

0.951

0.007

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

4

0.011

0.981

0.008

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

5

0.014

0.980

0.006

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

10

0.025

0.964

0.012

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

20

0.005

0.740

0.256

-

-

-

-

-

-

                     

Hatching probability

1

0.132

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.035

0.625

0.208

 

2

0.529

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.138

0.233

0.100

 

3

0.582

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.152

0.147

0.120

 

4

0.545

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.143

0.091

0.222

 

5

0.512

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.134

0.079

0.276

 

10

0.613

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.160

0.108

0.118

 

20

0.538

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.141

0.267

0.055

                     

Number of fledglings

1

0.069

0.041

0.715

0.012

0.008

0.155

-

-

-

 

2

0.019

0.117

0.682

0.003

0.025

0.153

-

-

-

 

3

0.004

0.014

0.808

0.001

0.003

0.171

-

-

-

 

4

0.001

0.001

0.834

0.000

0.000

0.164

-

-

-

 

5

0.002

0.003

0.840

0.000

0.001

0.154

-

-

-

 

10

0.124

0.277

0.424

0.022

0.058

0.096

-

-

-

 

20

0.009

0.061

0.727

0.002

0.014

0.187

-

-

-

                     

Fledging probability

1

0.370

0.039

0.241

0.128

0.007

0.033

0.064

0.018

0.100

(Likelihood that a

2

0.129

0.038

0.481

0.045

0.006

0.065

0.022

0.016

0.198

hatchling fledged)

3

0.063

0.015

0.576

0.022

0.002

0.078

0.011

0.006

0.227

 

4

0.019

0.004

0.636

0.007

0.001

0.086

0.003

0.002

0.243

 

5

0.042

0.006

0.608

0.015

0.001

0.083

0.007

0.002

0.237

 

10

0.019

0.004

0.636

0.007

0.001

0.086

0.003

0.002

0.243

 

20

0.483

0.072

0.100

0.168

0.011

0.015

0.083

0.030

0.040

Notes: mAICc weights depict the relative strength of each model for a given spatial scale (i.e., radius).

List of models and their variables:

Clutch size (n = 912):

Clutch = year + clutch initiation date

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Hatching probability (n = 912):

Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Clutch + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Clutch = year + clutch initiation date + eggs laid + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Number of fledglings (n = 715):

Brood = year + clutch initiation date

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Fledging probability (n = 715):

Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born

Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations

Brood + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + temperature + precipitations

Intensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive = year + clutch initiation date + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Intensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Intensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + intensive culture + manure tanks + intensive culture × manure tanks

Extensive + Brood = year + clutch initiation date + chicks born + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle

Extensive + Weather = year + clutch initiation date + temperature + precipitations + water + extensive culture + manure tanks + extensive culture × manure tanks + cattle + extensive culture × cattle


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