Ecological Archives A018-011-A5

Martin P. Girardin and Manfred Mudelsee. 2008. Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildlife activity. Ecological Applications 18:391–406.

Appendix E. Fire occurrence estimates obtained from CGCM3 simulations.

   FIG. E1. (a), (c) and (e): Fire occurrence (n large fire events) as predicted from tree-ring based drought reconstructions (period 1769–1998) and simulated data from the CGCM3 model (periods 2047–2065 and 2082–2100). (b), (d) and (f): Occurrence rate of extreme fire years. The extreme events were detected using median smoothing (median smoothing parameter k = 100 and a distance to the median threshold of z = 2.5; see Mudelsee 2006 for details). The extreme events were further analyzed using a Gaussian kernel, a bandwidth of h = 15 years and bootstrap simulations (nsim = 10,000). The bandwidth was determined using a cross-validation criterion (Mudelsee et al. 2004: Eq. 5 therein). This yielded occurrence rate (bold line) and 90% confidence bands (shaded area). A sensitivity analysis, in which the parameters k, z, and h were varied around the used values, confirmed the robustness of the results.



Mudelsee, M., M. Börngen, G. Tetzlaff, and U. Grünewald. 2004. Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway “Zugstrasse Vb”. Journal of Geophysical Research 109(D23), D23101 doi: 10.1029/2004JD005034.

Mudelsee, M. 2006. CLIM-X-DETECT: A Fortran 90 program for robust detection of extremes against a time-dependent background in climate records. Computers and Geosciences 32:141–144.

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