Hong Liu, Eric S. Menges, and Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio. 2005. Population viability analyses of Chamaecrista keyensis: effects of fire season and frequency. Ecological Applications 15:210–221.

Appendix A. Fecundity and fertility calculations for matrix building of Chamaecrista keyensis.

We estimated fecundity, the mean number of seeds per plant per year, by multiplying the mean number of fruits per plant per year and mean number of seeds per fruit. Site and year-specific mean numbers of seeds per fruit were used for fecundity calculations when possible. Otherwise, we used data from the most similar plots in terms of time since fire, fire season, and block (Table A1). Fecundity of plots that were burned after fruit production (Table A2) were subject to a fire survival factor (18%, percentage of seeds surviving a fire event, see Seed mortality due to fire for details).

We estimated percent seed germination within the first year and percent seeds remaining dormant from two seed bank experiments. One was the bagged-seed experiment which provided estimates of percent germination within the first year (G1), percent of seeds dormant over one year (V1) (Fig. A1 and Table A3), percent of dormant seeds germinated the second year (G2), and percent of dormant seeds that remained dormant for another year or more (V2) (Table A3). Because some seeds were missing, we calculated the above estimates in two ways: either by counting missing seeds as germinated in the first year (“bagged optimistic” G1), or by omitting missing seeds in the calculation (“bagged pessimistic” G1) (Table A3).

The other experiment used to estimate first year percent seed germination (G1) was the sown-seed experiment (Table A4). Since the sown-seed experiments were carried out only in four plots for one year, while the bagged-seed experiments were done in all blocks, we generated correction factors from the four plots having both bagged- and sown-seed experiments (Table A4). We then multiplied these correction factors by G1 derived from bagged seeds for plots and years where only the bagged seed experiment was conducted. This process generated two additional percent germination scenarios: optimistic G1 and pessimistic G1, each adjusted by sown seed factors (Table A6).

The sown-seed experiment also generated estimates of seedling survival to the first census (SS). We obtained additional seedling survival rates using data from naturally occurring seedlings marked in the census plots of all treatment plots (Table A5). These two estimations of SS did not agree with each other. To apply the sown seed SS scenario to other sites/years where the experiment was not conducted, we derived correction factors by taking the ratio of SS sown seeds to SS natural (Table A5). These correction factors were then multiplied by the SS natural for plots and years where only the bagged seed experiment was conducted. This process generated two SS scenarios: SS sown and SS natural (Table A6).

Scenarios with sown-seed germination estimates (scenarios 1–4) projected correctly (i.e., they were not significantly different from observed) > 50% of the times, while scenarios with bagged-seed germination estimates (Scenarios 5–8) produced correct projections < 20% of the time (see underline in Table A7). Bagged seeds were overly optimistic predictors. Scenario 3 (Sown optimistic germination and sown seedling survival) produced the largest number of correct projections (24 of 30 times, see underline in Table A7), and the most projections that were the best among the 8 scenarios (13 of 30 times, see bolding in Table A7). We therefore chose scenario 3 as the base scenario for further deterministic and stochastic analyses.

When lacking, we pooled data on fertility from the most similar plot in terms of fire history and block (Table A8). Final fertility elements, which includes FS (Fecundity * G1 * SS), FSB (Fecundity * V1), SBS (G2 *SS), SBSB (V2) of scenario 3 (Sown optimistic G and sown SS) are presented in Table A9. Overall, we constructed 8 sets of matrices, each composed of 30 matrices and each represented a fertility scenario (e. g. Appendix D).

Table A1. Sample sizes for mean number of seeds per fruit.

Plot	Year	Tsf	Number of seeds/ fruit	Sampled fruits	Pool site (year)
OC	1998	15	6.37	0	OC (1999)
OS	1998	15	6.37	0	OC (1999)
OW	1998	15	6.37	0	OC (1999)
PC	1998	30	5.91	0	PC (1999)
PS	1998	30	5.91	0	PC (1999)
PW	1998	30	5.91	0	PC (1999)
OC	1999	15	6.37	75	-
OS	1999	1	6.51	92	-
OW	1999	1	6.86	81	-
PC	1999	30	5.91	34	-
PS	1999	1	5.91	0	PC (1999)
PW	1999	1	5.91	0	PC (1999)
IC	1999	15	6.41	111	-
IS	1999	15	6.41	0	IC (1999)
IW	1999	15	6.41	0	IC (1999)
DC	1999	30	6.58	12	-
DS	1999	30	6.2	0	DC (1999) & DW (1999)
DW	1999	30	6.1	41	-
OC	2000	15	6.94	48	-
OS	2000	2	4.11	9	-
OW	2000	2	6.39	124	-
PC	2000	30	5.91	0	PC (1999)
PS	2000	2	5.91	0	PS (1999)
PW	2000	2	5.91	0	PW (1999)
IC	2000	15	7.21	19	-
IS	2000	1	6.64	1	DS (2000)
IW	2000	15	7.21	0	IC (2000)
DC	2000	30	5.61	23	-
DS	2000	1	6.73	60	-
DW	2000	30	5.73	3	DC (2000)
OC	2001	15	6.94	0	OC (2000)
OS	2001	3	4.11	0	OS (2000)
OW	2001	3	6.39	0	OW (2000)
PC	2001	30	5.91	0	PC (2000)
PS	2001	3	5.91	0	PS (2000)
PW	2001	3	5.91	0	PW (2000)
IC	2001	15	7.21	0	IC (2000)
IS	2001	2	6.64	0	IS (2000)
IW	2001	1	6.64	0	IW (2000)
DC	2001	30	5.61	0	DC (2000)
DS	2001	2	6.73	0	DS (2000)
DW	2001	30	5.73	0	DW (2000)

   Notes: Data from the most similar site and /or year in terms of site location and time since burn were pooled if fewer than 5 fruits were sampled. Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. Tsf = time since fire (years), Bold = pooled, - = not pooled.

Table A2. Fecundity worksheet.

Plot	Year	Tsf	Mean # of sds per frt	Mean number of fruit‡			Fecundity (mean number of seeds)
				Per sf	Per mf	Per lf	Per sf	Per mf	Per lf
OC	1998	15	6.37	2.02	2.60	7.13	12.87	16.58	45.42
OS†	1998	0	6.37	2.17	3.23	6.91	2.44	3.64	7.78
OW†	1998	0	6.37	2.29	2.43	6.67	2.57	2.73	7.50
PC	1998	30	5.91	1.43	2.55	5.63	8.44	15.08	33.25
PS†	1998	0	5.91	2.11	2.20	4.41	0.56	1.32	4.65
PW†	1998	0	5.91	1.00	1.50	2.67	0.60	1.30	3.12
OC	1999	15	6.37	2.00	3.57	8.11	12.74	22.74	51.66
OS	1999	1	6.51	2.44	3.17	6.50	15.88	20.64	42.32
OW	1999	1	6.86	2.14	5.19	10.18	14.68	35.60	69.83
PC	1999	30	5.91	1.38	2.10	4.48	8.16	12.41	26.48
PS	1999	1	5.91	1.33	3.13	11.00	7.86	18.50	65.01
PW	1999	1	5.91	1.43	3.08	7.39	8.45	18.20	43.67
IC	1999	15	6.41	2.40	2.85	6.04	15.38	18.27	38.72
IS†	1999	0	6.41	1.00	2.50	2.20	1.13	2.83	2.49
IW	1999	15	6.41	1.25	2.83	3.40	8.01	18.14	21.79
DC	1999	30	6.58	2.22	6.60	9.48	14.61	43.43	62.38
DS†	1999	0	6.2	1.87	3.75	5.75	9.05	21.02	33.74
DW	1999	30	6.1	2.00	3.38	9.33	12.20	20.62	56.91
OC	2000	15	6.94	1.29	2.25	3.62	8.95	15.62	25.12
OS	2000	2	4.11	1.33	3.50	6.25	5.47	14.39	25.69
OW	2000	2	6.39	1.80	2.47	6.61	11.50	15.78	42.24
PC	2000	30	5.91	1.30	1.86	3.63	7.68	10.99	21.45
PS	2000	2	5.91	1.00	2.80	5.73	5.91	16.55	33.86
PW	2000	2	5.91	1.33	2.84	6.04	7.86	16.78	35.70
IC	2000	15	7.21	1.91	1.47	4.14	13.77	10.60	29.85
IS	2000	1	6.64	1.00	3.00	13.54	6.64	19.92	89.91
IW†	2000	0	7.21	1.60	1.14	1.67	1.76	2.35	3.52
DC	2000	30	5.61	2.00	2.40	6.73	11.22	13.46	37.76
DS	2000	1	6.73	2.00	4.72	13.54	13.46	31.77	91.12
DW	2000	30	5.73	2.08	1.91	8.13	11.92	10.94	46.58
OC	2001	15	6.94	1.00	3.00	3.20	6.94	20.82	22.21
OS	2001	3	4.11	1.50	1.60	4.20	6.17	6.58	17.26
OW	2001	3	6.39	1.67	2.77	5.35	10.67	17.70	34.19
PC	2001	30	5.91	2.00	2.67	1.00	11.82	15.78	5.91
PS	2001	3	5.91	1.50	1.67	6.00	8.87	9.87	35.46
PW	2001	3	5.91	2.00	2.16	7.79	11.82	12.77	46.04
IC	2001	15	7.21	1.00	1.62	4.85	7.21	11.68	34.97
IS	2001	2	6.64	1.67	2.25	4.00	11.09	14.94	26.56
IW	2001	1	6.64	1.50	2.00	3.00	9.96	13.28	19.92
DC	2001	30	5.61	1.00	2.57	6.00	5.61	14.42	33.66
DS	2001	2	6.73	2.00	3.74	15.47	13.46	25.17	104.11
DW	2001	30	5.73	1.00	2.30	1.86	5.73	13.18	10.66

   Notes: Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. Bold numbers indicate pooled data. Tsf = time since last fire, sf = small flowering plant, mf = medium flowering plant, lf = large flowering plant.

^†Fecundity has been multiplied by fire survival factor (18%).

^‡Since total mature fruit production in 1998 were not known, three regression functions were formulated based on 1999 data: Ln(total fruit 98) = 0.665 +0.149 * No. of inmature (if  No. of inmature > 0). Or, Ln(total fruit 98) = -0.587+1.323 * No. of flower (if No. of inmature fruit <1, and No. of flower > 0). Or, Ln (total fruit 98) = -0.261 + 0.176 * No. of flower bud (if No. of inmature and No. of flower < 1 and No. of flower bud >0).

Table A3. Proportional fates of bagged seeds of 1999–2001, and 2000–2001 experiments.

Plot	# of years in field	Mean percent germination		Mean percent dormant		Mean percent dead
		pess	opt	pess	opt	pess	opt
IC	1 (99-00)	0.840	0.940	0.148	0.055	0.0125	0.005
IS	1 (99-00)	0.539	0.810	0.461	0.190	0	0
DC	1 99-00)	0.844	0.905	0.156	0.095	0	0
DS	1 (99-00)	0.537	0.670	0.463	0.330	0	0
IC	2 (99-01)	0.957	0.983	0.037	0.015	0.006	0.003
IS	2 (99-01)	0.924	0.993	0.076	0.008	0	0
DC	2 (99-01)	0.967	0.995	0.033	0.005	0	0
DS	2(99-01)	0.911	0.993	0.073	0.005	0	0.003
OC	1 (00-01)	0.687	0.850	0.148	0.079	0.165	0.071
OS	1 (00-01)	0.629	0.843	0.313	0.129	0.058	0.028
OW	1 (00-01)	0.571	0.886	0.188	0.071	0.241	0.043
PC	1 00-01)	0.603	0.764	0.337	0.207	0.060	0.029
PS	1 (00-01)	0.437	0.743	0.352	0.207	0.211	0.050
PW	1 (00-01)	0.425	0.786	0.519	0.200	0.056	0.014
IC	1 (00-01)	0.284	0.640	0.665	0.335	0.051	0.025
IS	1 (00-01)	0.397	0.685	0.515	0.265	0.088	0.050
DC	1 (00-01)	0.724	0.810	0.269	0.185	0.007	0.005
DS	1 (00-01)	0.180	0.625	0.698	0.320	0.122	0.055
IC	1†	0.791	0.773	0.210	0.227	0‡	0‡
IS	1†	0.836	0.961	0.164	0.040	0	0
DC	1†	0.787	0.947	0.213	0.053	0	0
DS	1†	0.808	0.977	0.156	0.015	0.0361	0.0076

   Notes: Pessimistic scenario (pess) refers to discounting the missing seeds in calculation while optimistic scenario (opt) refers to assuming that the missing seeds have germinated. Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. Bold indicates 1^st year germination (G1) or dormancy (V1); non-bold indicates cumulative germination or dormancy over 2 years. Italic indicates 2^nd year germination (G2), and dormancy (V2).

^†Inferred 2^nd year seed germination and dormancy parameters based on bagged seed experiments. Percent germination of 2^nd yr = (Percent germination of two yrs – percent germination of 1^st yr) / percent dormant of 1st year. Percent dead of 2^nd year = (percent dead of two yrs – percent dead of 1^st yr) / percent dormant of 1^st yr. Percent dormant of 2^nd yr = 1 – percent germination of 2^nd yr – percent dead of 2^nd yr.

^‡Zero was substituted for a small negative value.

Table A4. Comparisons of mean 1^st yr percent germination (G1) of bagged vs. sown seeds in 2000-01 experiment.

Plot	Bagged 1st yr percent germination		Sown 1st yr percent germination	G correction factor (sown pg / bagged pg)
	pessimistic	optimistic		pessimistic	optimistic
IC	0.284	0.640	0.115	0.405	0.180
IS	0.397	0.685	0.145	0.365	0.212
DC	0.724	0.810	0.095	0.131	0.162
DS	0.180	0.625	0.045	0.25	0.072
Mean	0.405	0.690	0.10	-	-
Std dev	0.346	0.267	0.121	-	-
Range	0.0-1.0	0.0-1.0	0.0-0.40	-	-
Median	0.400	0.700	0.050	-	-
N	36	40	40	-	-

   Notes: Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. pg = percent germination.

Table A5. Comparisons of seedling survival (SS) of naturally occurred seedlings vs. sown seeds in 2000–2001 (inferred from the toothpick marked seedlings only).

Plot	SS sown seeds	SS natural	SS correction factor (sown SS / natural SS)
IC	0.261	0.444	0.588
IS	0.233	0.212	1.099
DC	0.238	0.250	0.952
DS	0.533	0.204	2.613
Mean	0.357	0.331	-
Std dev	0.430	0.432	-
Range	0.0-1.0	0.0-1.0	-
Median	0.10	0.0	-
N	28	49	-

   Notes: Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. Bold indicates pooled data.

Table A6. Fertility scenarios of matrix models of Chamaecrista keyensis.

Scenario number	Germination type (G)	Seedling survival to first census type (SS)
1	Sown pessimistic	Sown
2	Sown pessimistic	Natural
3	Sown optimistic	Sown
4	Sown optimistic	Natural
5	Bagged pessimistic	Sown
6	Bagged pessimistic	Natural
7	Bagged optimistic	Sown
8	Bagged optimistic	Natural

Table A7. Likelihood ratio P values of Chi-square tests of model predictions vs. observed population structures.

Site	P year	Scen1	Scen2	Scen3	Scen4	Scen5	Scen6	Scen7	Scen8
OC	1999	0.438	0.002	0.988	0.788	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2000	0.999	0.665	0.237	0.986	0.035	<.0001	0.004	<.0001
	2001	0.303	0.002	0.995	0.867	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
OS	1999	<0.001	<0.001	0.048	0.048	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2000	0.626	0.616	0.716	0.048	<0.001	.052	0.015	.03
	2001	0.002	0.002	0.028	0.028	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
OW	1999	0.57	0.915	0.781	0.273	0.004	.15	0.058	.691
	2000	0.791	0.866	0.869	0.84	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	0.02	0.042	0.681	0.824	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
PC	1999	0.944	0.928	0.98	0.974	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2000	0.728	0.834	0.76	0.796	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	0.036	0.023	0.095	0.089	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
PS	1999	0.061	0.226	0.992	1	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2000	0.096	0.519	0.928	0.931	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	0.000	<0.001	0.105	0.222	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
PW	1999	0.922	0.919	0.844	0.262	<0.001	.886	0.001	.947
	2000	0.909	0.8	0.354	0.043	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	.0001
	2001	0.000	<0.001	0.085	0.54	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	.0001
IC	2000	0.54	<0.001	0.008	<0.001	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	<0.001	<0.001	0.545	0.001	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
IS	2000	0.87	0.738	0.326	0.326	0.997	.998	0.945	.993
	2001	0.858	0.858	0.672	0.672	0.999	.999	0.997	.999
IW	2000	0.379	0.004	0.994	0.713	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	0.186	0.108	0.024	0.017	0.872	.306	0.472	.074
DC	2000	<0.001	<0.001	0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	0.019	0.012	0.051	0.036	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
DS	2000	0.141	0.667	0.242	0.018	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	<0.001	0.065	<0.001	0.045	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
DW	2000	0.972	0.951	0.99	0.985	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
	2001	0.107	0.067	0.062	0.038	<0.001	<.0001	<0.001	<.0001
No. of  good projections		20	17	24	18	3	6	4	5
No. of  best projections		3	5	13	7	2	2	0	2

Notes: Underline indicates a non-significant value at 0.05 level (good projection) and bold indicates the scenario with the highest P value among the 8 scenarios (the best projection among the 8 scenarios).

Table A8. Seed bank parameters for fertility scenario 3 (Sown optimistic G and sown SS) and data pooling information.

Plot	year	Tsf	G1	V1	G1&V1 Pooled site	G2	V2	G2&V2 pooled site	SS-sown	SS pooled site
OC	98-99	0	0.153	0.079	OC 00-01	0.139	0.227	IC 99-00	0.141	OC 99-00
OS	98-99	0	0.178	0.190	OS 00-01	0.203	0.039	IS 99-00	0.677†	OS 99-00
OW	98-99	10	0.187	0.190	OW 00-01	0.203	0.039	IS 99-00	0.338	OW 99-00
PC	98-99	20	0.090	0.207	PC 00-01	0.111	0.053	DC 99-00	0.417	PC 99-00
PS	98-99	0	0.053	0.330	PS 00-01	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.677†	PS 99-00
PW	98-99	0	0.057	0.330	PW 00-01	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.677†	PW 99-00
OC	99-00	10	0.153	0.079	OC 00-01	0.139	0.227	IC 99-00	0.141	-
OS	99-00	1	0.178	0.129	OS 00-01	0.203	0.039	IS 99-00	0.677†	-
OW	99-00	1	0.187	0.071	OW 00-01	0.203	0.040	IS 99-00	0.338	-
PC	99-00	20	0.090	0.207	PC 00-01	0.111	0.053	DC 99-00	0.417	-
PS	99-00	1	0.053	0.207	PS 00-01	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.677†	-
PW	99-00	1	0.057	0.200	PW 00-01	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.677†	-
IC	99-00	10	0.169	0.055	-	0.139	0.227	-	0.292	-
IS	99-00	0	0.171	0.190	-	0.203	0.039	-	0.229	-
IW	99-00	10	0.169	0.055	IC 99-00	0.139	0.227	IC 99-00	0.184	-
DC	99-00	20	0.106	0.095	-	0.111	0.053	-	0.458	-
DS	99-00	0	0.048	0.330	-	0.070	0.015	-	0.677†	-
DW	99-00	20	0.106	0.095	DC 99-00	0.111	0.053	DC 99-00	0.549	-
OC	00-01	10	0.153	0.079	-	0.139	0.227	IC 99-00	0.206	-
OS	00-01	2	0.178	0.129	-	0.203	0.039	IS 99-00	0.677†	-
OW	00-01	2	0.187	0.071	-	0.203	0.040	IS 99-00	0.473	-
PC	00-01	20	0.090	0.207	-	0.111	0.053	DC 99-00	0.430	-
PS	00-01	2	0.053	0.207	-	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.677†	-
PW	00-01	2	0.057	0.200	-	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.677†	-
IC	00-01	10	0.115	0.335	-	0.139	0.227	IC 99-00	0.261	-
IS	00-01	1	0.145	0.265	-	0.203	0.039	IS 99-00	0.233	-
IW	00-01	0	0.145	0.190	IS 00-01	0.203	0.039	IS 99-00	0.212	-
DC	00-01	20	0.095	0.185	-	0.111	0.053	DC 99-00	0.238	-
DS	00-01	1	0.045	0.320	-	0.070	0.015	DS 99-00	0.533	-
DW	00-01	20	0.095	0.185	DC 00-01	0.111	0.053	DC 99-00	0.357	-

Notes: Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. Tsf = time since fire (years). Italic = correction factor applied, bold = pooled data.

^†Derived sown-SS that were greater than 0.677, the maximum SS observed in field, were set to 0.677.

Table A9. Matrix fertility elements for scenario 3 (Sown optimistic G and sown SS).

Plot	Year	Tsf	FS			FSB			SBS	SBSB
			sf	mf	lf	sf	mf	lf
OC	98-99	0	0.278	0.358	0.982	1.011	1.302	3.569	0.020	0.227
OS	98-99	0	0.295	0.440	0.940	0.464	0.692	1.478	0.138	0.039
OW	98-99	10	0.163	0.173	0.476	0.489	0.519	1.426	0.069	0.039
PC	98-99	20	0.316	0.564	1.244	1.749	3.124	6.886	0.046	0.053
PS	98-99	0	0.020	0.048	0.168	0.185	0.436	1.533	0.048	0.015
PW	98-99	0	0.023	0.050	0.120	0.199	0.429	1.030	0.048	0.015
OC	99-00	10	0.275	0.491	1.116	1.001	1.787	4.059	0.020	0.227
OS	99-00	1	1.919	2.493	5.111	2.043	2.654	5.442	0.138	0.039
OW	99-00	1	0.931	2.258	4.430	1.049	2.543	4.988	0.069	0.040
PC	99-00	20	0.305	0.464	0.991	1.689	2.570	5.483	0.046	0.053
PS	99-00	1	0.285	0.670	2.354	1.628	3.831	13.464	0.048	0.015
PW	99-00	1	0.324	0.697	1.673	1.690	3.641	8.735	0.048	0.015
IC	99-00	10	0.758	0.900	1.907	0.846	1.005	2.129	0.040	0.227
IS	99-00	0	0.045	0.111	0.098	0.215	0.538	0.473	0.047	0.039
IW	99-00	10	0.916	2.074	2.492	0.441	0.998	1.199	0.094	0.227
DC	99-00	20	0.710	2.111	3.032	1.388	4.126	5.926	0.051	0.053
DS	99-00	0	0.296	0.686	1.102	2.986	6.936	11.133	0.048	0.015
DW	99-00	20	0.711	1.202	3.319	1.159	1.959	5.407	0.061	0.053
OC	00-01	10	0.281	0.491	0.789	0.703	1.227	1.974	0.029	0.227
OS	00-01	2	0.660	1.738	3.103	0.703	1.850	3.303	0.138	0.039
OW	00-01	2	1.019	1.399	3.743	0.822	1.127	3.017	0.096	0.040
PC	00-01	20	0.296	0.424	0.828	1.591	2.277	4.443	0.048	0.053
PS	00-01	2	0.214	0.599	1.226	1.224	3.427	7.013	0.048	0.015
PW	00-01	2	0.301	0.643	1.367	1.572	3.357	7.139	0.048	0.015
IC	00-01	10	0.413	0.318	0.896	4.613	3.551	10.000	0.036	0.227
IS	00-01	1	0.224	0.673	3.037	1.760	5.279	23.825	0.047	0.039
IW	00-01	0	0.054	0.072	0.108	0.334	0.446	0.669	0.043	0.039
DC	00-01	20	0.254	0.304	0.854	2.076	2.491	6.985	0.026	0.053
DS	00-01	1	0.323	0.762	2.186	4.307	10.165	29.160	0.038	0.015
DW	00-01	20	0.404	0.371	1.580	2.205	2.025	8.618	0.040	0.053

   Notes: Plot abbreviations are given in Table 1 in main text. Bold indicates pooled data. Tsf = categories of time since fire. FS (fecundity to seedling) = fecundity*G1*SS; FSB (fecundity to seed bank) = fecundity *V1; SBS (seed bank to seedling) = G2*SS, SBSB (seed bank to seed bank) = V2. Sf = small reproductive plant, mf = medium reproductive plant, lf = large reproductive plant.

FIG. A1. Conceptual flow chart between fecundity (current year's seed crop), seed bank, and realized fertility (seedling). G1 is the percent germination of fresh seeds within the first year. SS is seedling survival up to the first annual census. V1 is the percentage of fresh seeds remaining dormant for one year or more. V2 is the proportion of the first year seed bank remaining dormant for another year or more. G2 is the proportion of the first year seed bank that germinated within the second year. FS = fecundity to seedling, FSB = Fecundity to seed bank, SBSB = seed bank survival, SBS = seed bank to seedling.